Arizona’s 85% law is a truth-in-sentencing policy that requires certain offenders to serve at least 85% of their prison sentence before being eligible for early release.
For many crimes, parole is not an option until the majority of the sentence has been completed.
But does this strict sentencing policy actually reduce recidivism—or does it create a cycle of reoffending?
Let’s break it down.
What Is Arizona’s 85% Law?
The 85% law was introduced to:
- Ensure that convicted offenders serve the majority of their sentence.
- Reduce early release opportunities, preventing offenders from returning to the streets too soon.
- Increase "truth in sentencing", so victims and the public know that offenders won’t be released early.
Example:
A defendant is sentenced to 10 years in prison.
Under the 85% law, they must serve at least 8.5 years before being eligible for release.
Good behavior or rehabilitation efforts won’t significantly reduce this time.
The goal: More time behind bars = less chance for repeat offenses. But does it work?
Has the 85% Law Reduced Recidivism in Arizona?
Not necessarily.
While longer sentences keep offenders locked up, they don’t always prevent reoffending.
- Arizona’s recidivism rate (the rate at which released prisoners reoffend) is around 39%—higher than the national average.
- Studies suggest that longer sentences do not directly reduce recidivism. Instead, rehabilitation, education, and reentry programs are more effective.
- States with less restrictive sentencing policies and stronger rehabilitation efforts have lower recidivism rates than Arizona.
Example:
Arizona incarcerates more people per capita than most states—yet has a higher recidivism rate than those with more rehabilitative approaches.
Texas, for example, has implemented reentry programs and reduced sentencing for certain nonviolent offenders—and recidivism rates have dropped.
More prison time doesn’t necessarily mean less crime after release.
Why Might the 85% Law Increase Recidivism?
Locking people up longer doesn’t always mean they come out better.
Lack of Rehabilitation Programs
- Many Arizona inmates do not receive adequate rehabilitation, job training, or counseling due to budget cuts and prison conditions.
- Longer sentences without rehabilitation mean inmates leave prison without the skills needed to reintegrate into society.
Harder Reentry Into Society
- Serving 85% of a long sentence means inmates return to society with fewer social connections, job opportunities, or stability.
- Many struggle with housing, employment, and mental health, increasing their chances of reoffending just to survive.
Example:
An inmate serves 15 years for a drug-related offense.
During that time, they receive no education, job training, or rehabilitation services.
Upon release, they can’t find work, have no support system, and end up reoffending.
Longer sentences without rehabilitation = a revolving door back to prison.
How Arizona Compares to Other States
- States that emphasize rehabilitation and alternative sentencing (like Oregon and California) have lower recidivism rates than Arizona.
- Arizona has one of the highest incarceration rates in the country—but its crime rates have not significantly improved.
- Texas, which has shifted toward rehabilitation-based reforms, has seen crime rates and recidivism decline while reducing its prison population.
Key Statistic:
- Arizona recidivism rate: ~39%
- National average recidivism rate: ~36%
- Texas recidivism rate (after criminal justice reform): ~31%
States focusing on rehabilitation see fewer repeat offenders.
The Future: Should Arizona Reform the 85% Law?
Many criminal justice reform advocates argue that Arizona should:
- Reduce mandatory minimums for nonviolent offenders.
- Expand rehabilitation and job training programs within prisons.
- Allow more inmates to earn earlier release through education and good behavior.
- Focus on reentry programs that help ex-offenders successfully reintegrate into society.
Example:
California introduced rehabilitation programs, leading to a 10% drop in recidivism over a decade.
Meanwhile, Arizona continues to rely on long prison sentences—with little improvement in reoffending rates.
Longer prison sentences don’t automatically reduce crime—successful reintegration does.
Conclusion: Does the 85% Law Work?
✅ It keeps people in prison longer, preventing immediate reoffending.
❌ But it does little to prevent crime once offenders are released.
❌ Arizona’s recidivism rates remain high compared to states that focus on rehabilitation.
✅ To truly reduce recidivism, Arizona may need to shift focus toward reentry programs, job training, and mental health services.
Final Thought:
The 85% law keeps criminals off the streets longer—but without rehabilitation, it risks creating a cycle of reoffending.
Want lower crime? Invest in second chances—not just longer sentences.
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